We're out out - The Brexit Thread

[shambles1980]

thats a strange sentiment.
the uk wanted to impose tarrifs on china imports. but were prevented by eu. also the uk is a huge part of the eu economy, if we arent trading with them then they suffer more than we do.
we trade at a deficit with the eu. due to tarrifs. the rest of the world we do a bit better.
and alot of our industries and manufacturing was moved to central Europe in exchange for subsidies.
our Aluminium and steel industries have declined horrendously due to this and can only improve from here on.
Britain was not historically the leading industrial country on the planet because it lacks resources..

and a huge factor for creating the eu to start it is now gone.
it was started in a time before the internet and when huge shipping container transporters were not common at all. these days you can trade with any where in the world as easily as you can with the closest island..

even the eu understands that the uk is an integral trade partner with the countrys within it. and it is more important for them to gain our money from trades than it is for us to gain their imports that we could attain else where.

 

[SeekaX]

thats a strange sentiment.
the uk wanted to impose tarrifs on china imports. but were prevented by eu. also the uk is a huge part of the eu economy, if we arent trading with them then they suffer more than we do.
we trade at a deficit with the eu. due to tarrifs. the rest of the world we do a bit better.
and alot of our industries and manufacturing was moved to central Europe in exchange for subsidies.
our Aluminium and steel industries have declined horrendously due to this and can only improve from here on.
Britain was not historically the leading industrial country on the planet because it lacks resources..

and a huge factor for creating the eu to start it is now gone.
it was started in a time before the internet and when huge shipping container transporters were not common at all. these days you can trade with any where in the world as easily as you can with the closest island..

even the eu understands that the uk is an integral trade partner with the countrys within it. and it is more important for them to gain our money from trades than it is for us to gain their imports that we could attain else where.

I think you are vastly overestimating the power the UK has over the EU. What does the UK export the EU can't get from elsewhere? The EU loses one trading partner, the UK loses quite a few more, one rather small country can't strongarm the EU.

 

[shambles1980]

its not the imports from the uk eu worry about. its the exports to the uk.
With the eu imposing tarrifs on imports from outside the eu they effectively forced the uk to trade at a deficit with the eu.
Also these tarifs were both hindering the uk from importing things that we would want, at the same time lower tarifs on china steel because eu countrys needed cheaper steel meant that the uk could not export steel to the eu.

With eu forced tarifs removed then the uk can import from else where at a more favorable rate. and the countrys that need the money from uk exports can trade with the uk at a more efficient rate..


lets just look at this:
UK international trade 2014


£61bn
trade deficit with EU countries

£28bn
trade surplus with non-EU countries

• £227bn UK exports to EU
• £288bn UK imports from EU
• 45% of all UK exports go to the EU

As you see we traded at a loss of 61billion with the eu. and yet traded at a proffit of £28billion outside the eu..
of course these figures will always fluctuate. but we always trade at a loss within the eu.
288billion is a lot of money to go else where. and 45% of our exports would still be wanted, otherwise they wouldn't have bought them to start it..
And the other 55% exported managed to net a profit. But thanks to the tariff system we ended up with an overall deficit of ~£33 billion..
and that really is not good economics.

the foreign affairs people issued a paper on this in april which outlined that we would financially be better out of the eu, but as it was a conservative paper "remain camp" it was not used in any of the literature they released.
it is also importaint to mention that Germany is where we import the most from, and germany are happy to have an individual trade agreement.

 

[Greenback]

A simple fact the EU has to make it near impossible for us to land on our feet, because if we come out reasonably unscathed because otherwise there will be a cascade effect it may be the smaller members first but all you need is France or Germany to go and that's the EU finished

..

What you are failing to see is the EU could reduce Tariffs of those items from other countries and increase ours, thus making it cheaper to get them else where

 

[shambles1980]

There is still the WTO rules.
And that is what we would be affected by, the eu tariffs would not affect us as much as it would harm the countrys that want to trade with us.

if they raise tarifs on the uk "things we import" we will just trade else where under the wto rules. this will mostly affect Germany. which in itself would directly effect the Eu.
if they raise the tariffs on the things we export there. that only hinders them. Although it is a guarantee that uk exports to the eu will be subject to 3-10% tarifs. that is under the WTO trading rules.
but lets imagine that we have to export else where at a 10% tariff going from 21b proffit on 55% exports assuming it was 0% tarif (even though it had to be a minimum of 3%) we are still looking at a profit of around 35billion..

Also article 50 prevents them from punishing the uk in such a manner. and breaching that would only further cause euro skepticism and increase the likelihood of more country's leaving. and then you also have the WTO rules. which prevent you trading unfavorably with other countrys for any reasons other than sanctions.

 

[Greenback]

I wouldn't trust anything written in Article 50 when talking about the EU


On a more lighter note I was watching some remain comments I noticed that the majority blame the Leave for lies, but I have only seen 2 that actually blame the remain for not doing enough to show the good things and discredit the lies.

I wonder how many remain are not so much we like the EU but just scared of the unknown with a better the devil you know

 

[Tolemac]

I wouldn't trust anything written in Article 50 when talking about the EU


On a more lighter note I was watching some remain comments I noticed that the majority blame the Leave for lies, but I have only seen 2 that actually blame the remain for not doing enough to show the good things and discredit the lies.

I wonder how many remain are not so much we like the EU but just scared of the unknown with a better the devil you know

I think you are right mate people do not like change it scares them

 

[Greenback]

I think you are right mate people do not like change it scares them

1 of the Mp's on BBC during the count basically come and said that "British people vote for what they know" this was before it became clear in this case we didn't.

Also makes you wonder if that's why we only really have a 2 party election, the others are just well i got to vote for someone and they turned up

 

[Warchild]

it is also importaint to mention that Germany is where we import the most from, and germany are happy to have an individual trade agreement.

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V3Z0s_nRZaQ

Check out this report.

What does this tell us about the UK’s bargaining power with the EU after a Brexit? Well, it certainly confirms that we would become one of the EU’s largest export markets, even if not necessarily the largest. But we’d still be far less important to the EU than they are to us – the EU still takes about 45 percent of our exports, down from 55 percent at the turn of the century. And, if you treat the EU as one country, as this analysis does, “exports” become considerably less important overall (intra-EU trade is far more important to almost all EU countries). Indeed, as this Eurostat table shows, only for Ireland and Cyprus does the UK represent more than 10 percent of total (including intra-EU) exports.

So how important would exporting to the UK be to the EU economy after Brexit? EU exports to the UK would represent about 3 percent of EU GDP; not negligible by any means, but equally perhaps not as dramatic as one might think. The EU, and even more so the UK, would certainly have a strong incentive to negotiate a sensible trading arrangement post-Brexit. But no-one should imagine the UK holds all the cards

It is a good report and sums up both sides of the arguement, but does stress that UK is not as important as the average person thinks it is.

 

[shambles1980]

that basically says what i said..
We import alot and when we are no longer a member of the eu we would in theory be the biggest importer the eu has. and that is what they would worry about, what we export to them is not something they would be overly upset about. but if we stopped importing from them because we are now under WTO rules and can get the exact same thing for the same price or even cheaper else where. then they would not be in a good possition.

it then goes on to say that we trade 55% of our exports with them.. which i already mentions, but we do that at a loss.. the remaining 45% we trade with the rest of the world at a profit..

As it says we do not hold all the cards, but our hand is strong enough that if we dont get the deal we want we are better off with no deal.
the eu are slightly worse off than they would be if we did get a deal.
it is more in the EU's interest that we come to a good deal than it is in ours. BUT NOT BY MUCH..
I wouldnt say it is so much in the eu's best interest to have a good deal that they will give the uk what they want. and as i have said it is 90% likely that all negotiations will fail and no deal will be reached.

also trading 55% of exports at a loss is not sound economical trading practice.
And where as i doubt the rest of the world would take the 55% surplus we would have if we were to not export to the eu at all "which is not going to be the case in any ones imagination". it would still not be that terrible.

again places like Germany are very keen on setting up trading deals with the uk because we do import so much from them.
and if Germany ends up losing that money to places like china and America that will have a direct effect on the EU, because most of the money holding the eu up now is coming from Germany. and they already have to find a way to replace the contributions that the uk will not be sending..

i know that boris and them said 350million a week.. but after money back and so on. that really is more like 120million a week that the eu received. that still comes out at better than 6billion a year they now have to find. and if they lost the money from exporting to the uk aswell then i dont see how they could prop up a failing economy like Greece.

So even IF, the goverment distributes the money to the places that had subsidies at the same rate the eu did. and continues to export with the eu at the worst possible tarrif of 10% (would be closer to 3%) and then used the 6billion that they were not sending to the eu towards the trade deficit, even at 10% we would be in the same position we are now, but with control over many more aspects.
So in the WORST case scenario.. we would be the same financially. Provided the goverment used the eu money in the same way as the eu did and then used the remainder to offset tarrifs.
Ann in the Most likely outcome where tarifs would only be 10% at the absolute worse in some situations, we would be financially better off...

And either way we would have control over migration. tarifs, not be paid to stop production of industry, have our fishing quota back. and either be financially the same or financially better.

so its kind of hard to see a downside.

 

[Warchild]

that basically says what i said..
We import the most and that is what they would worry about, what we export to them is not something they would be overly upset about. but if we stopped importing from them because we are now under WTO rules and can get the exact same thing for the same price or even cheaper else where. then they would not be in a good possition.

it then goes on to say that we trade 55% of our exports with them.. which i already mentions, but we do that at a loss.. the remaining 45% we trade with the rest of the world at a proffit..

As it says we do not hold all the cards, but our hand is strong enough that if we dont get the deal we want we are better off with no deal. but the eu are slightly worse off than they would be if we did get a deal.

I did say it's a good report that sums up both arguments. It's just that the UK has a mentality that they are too important and will get what they want. A single market free tariff regime. That is where I disagree and think the EU can easily shop elsewhere. Let's face it. The EU could go elsewhere just in spite and to prove that no country is stronger than the EU standing as one.

 

[shambles1980]

they cant do that for 2 reasons, Article 50. and WTO rules.

But i do believe that the eu and uk will not be able to come to any deal. and i think its about time we evoked article 50 and tell them what we want. they can tell us why we cant have it. and we can shake hands and say, ok thats fine no hard feelings. and its done.

 

[Warchild]

they cant do that for 2 reasons, Article 50. and WTO rules.

But i do believe that the eu and uk will not be able to come to any deal. and i think its about time we evoked article 50 and tell them what we want. they can tell us why we cant have it. and we can shake hands and say, ok thats fine no hard feelings. and its done.

Now that I agree on. The moment Art 50 is invoke, the UK has a direction and plan. Business and public will now have an idea what is going to happen and the GBP will rise again. Right now this talk of the GBP being back to pre brexit is false. its trading at 1.328 to the dollar, before the vote it traded at 1.446.

Some businesses will get up and jump ship, which is expected. Some will ride it out knowing now that deals will begin to be negotiated.

The important thing is to fix the financial services passports asap or the big finance companies will relocate to the EU. And that is a bad loss for the UK.

Edit
Seems the Nok is rising well against the gbp its now at 10.9 to the pound. pre vote it was at 13.5. My studen loan just got a whole lot cheaper

 

[barnsley]

Some businesses will get up and jump ship, which is expected. Some will ride it out knowing now that deals will begin to be negotiated.

No doubt it'll be the ones who owe us alot of backpay in tax too...

One thing I really hope comes from brexit is that we get better controls on people dodging tax. Or at the very least, get more people on it then the stupidly large amount of people who're going after benefit cheats, which per year is a much smaller figure..

I mean, its estimated we lose over £260 million a day in tax fraud (based on a figure in 2013). Come on. That makes the sum we pay the EU look small in comparison.

 

[Greenback]

Eu courts have made us pay back billions of tax to companies so now they will have to go through our courts or actually pay the tax they owe

 

[Warchild]

No doubt it'll be the ones who owe us alot of backpay in tax too...

One thing I really hope comes from brexit is that we get better controls on people dodging tax. Or at the very least, get more people on it then the stupidly large amount of people who're going after benefit cheats, which per year is a much smaller figure..

I mean, its estimated we lose over £260 million a day in tax fraud (based on a figure in 2013). Come on. That makes the sum we pay the EU look small in comparison.

You only have your own government to blame on tax dodging. Look at Google compare what they owed and what they actually paid. That is a f**king slap in the face to all tax payers.

 

[barnsley]

You only have your own government to blame on tax dodging. Look at Google compare what they owed and what they actually paid. That is a f**king slap in the face to all tax payers.

I'm well aware of that.

 

[Dicehunter]

Where my cousin lives down south is getting ready to build a new mega mosque as a few thousand immigrants are expected in the next few months.

So much for stopping immigration.

The west is truly digging its own grave and very quickly, Cultural suicide would be an understatement.

 

[SeekaX]

Where my cousin lives down south is getting ready to build a new mega mosque as a few thousand immigrants are expected in the next few months.

So much for stopping immigration.

The west is truly digging its own grave and very quickly, Cultural suicide would be an understatement.

Culture changes all the time, compare modern western culture to 100 years ago, it's nothing alike. Nobody forces you to go to that mosque, the west won't turn into an islamist theocracy because a couple of immigrants show up. There may be a spike in presence for the islam for now, but in two or three generations i'm fairly sure the descendants of those immigrants will be about as religious as the current youth, religion loses importance when people get educated.

 

[Dicehunter]

Culture changes all the time, compare modern western culture to 100 years ago, it's nothing alike. Nobody forces you to go to that mosque, the west won't turn into an islamist theocracy because a couple of immigrants show up. There may be a spike in presence for the islam for now, but in two or three generations i'm fairly sure the descendants of those immigrants will be about as religious as the current youth, religion loses importance when people get educated.

This is forced immigration though, No sane person wants this ideology in their country as it always causes problems, It is causing problems all over Europe and like it or not it is not compatible with the western world.

When I lived in Berlin I had nothing but troubles and was in fights every single day with the moon god worshippers, Over here in my place of work we now have full time security because our female clientele were threatened on multiple occasions with rape by these animals and the worst part is we have idiots in the west defending their primitive behaviour.

If I went to Pakistan and started raping thousands of women and demanding they change their ways to suit me or I would cry racism they would shoot me, Here in the west we have spineless balless cowards who bend over and part their cheeks for them and say "Ok then I have to respect your culture even though it's incompatible with mine", The western world badly needs a wakeup call.

I'm rambling I know but I've had some very bad experiences.