Nvidia reportedly told Massdrop to expect GPU prices to increase until Q3 2018

[tannji]

Lets see if its real this time. Last time it was announced it turned out to be propaganda, lol. Also, I will be very interested to see how long it takes them to be available to anyone other than Chinese vendors. Regardless, if they can quickly become a dominant player within China, that frees Samsung to produce and sell the memory I need, outside of China.

 

[AlienALX]

Lets see if its real this time. Last time it was announced it turned out to be propaganda, lol. Also, I will be very interested to see how long it takes them to be available to anyone other than Chinese vendors. Regardless, if they can quickly become a dominant player within China, that frees Samsung to produce and sell the memory I need, outside of China.

The Chinese govt are building fabs as I type this. Like, huge fabs.

Now whether or not this memory on Anand will make it outside of China? no idea. I know a few cheap Chinese SSDs started appearing on Amazon but they were inevitably garbage, with massive failure rates. And they were only £5 or so cheaper than something like a Kingston, so not worth bothering with.

 

[tannji]

The Chinese govt are building fabs as I type this. Like, huge fabs.

Now whether or not this memory on Anand will make it outside of China? no idea. I know a few cheap Chinese SSDs started appearing on Amazon but they were inevitably garbage, with massive failure rates. And they were only £5 or so cheaper than something like a Kingston, so not worth bothering with.

I wasn't referring as to whether or not China has fabs, I noted yesterday how much they are spending to compete in the semiconductor industry, specifically in regards to fab building. Rather, when these will be available and competitive even in the entry-level, small budget sector. They have a history of making announcements that turn out to be premature or outright lies. China is in the business of competing for image every bit as much as they are for dollars. Korean Samsung is a painful thorn in the side of the Chinese PSC.

 

[AlienALX]

I wasn't referring as to whether or not China has fabs, I noted yesterday how much they are spending to compete in the semiconductor industry, specifically in regards to fab building. Rather, when these will be available and competitive even in the entry-level, small budget sector. They have a history of making announcements that turn out to be premature or outright lies. China is in the business of competing for image every bit as much as they are for dollars. Korean Samsung is a painful thorn in the side of the Chinese PSC.

2019. They will be at capacity in 2019. So we have another year of suckiness before then.

However, if I am right (and I usually am) the RAM coming from China will end up being just as expensive as there will no doubt be a middle man and greed, well it's greed.

We can, however, but hope.

 

[tannji]

2019. They will be at capacity in 2019. So we have another year of suckiness before then.

However, if I am right (and I usually am) the RAM coming from China will end up being just as expensive as there will no doubt be a middle man and greed, well it's greed.

We can, however, but hope.

Got a source for 2019? There is literally almost no information available about this, and none that has been independently verified. Being usually right requires more than just bald assertions. There is no historical precedent to support the idea that as soon as 2019 the memory coming from China will be as expensive, because they specialize in producing product that is cheaper and usually of less quality/performance than other manufacturers.
No one will knowing pay the same price for inferior product. You made this point in reference to water cooling blocks and fittings yesterday, so why would memory be any different?
\
To be seen as "usually right" you have to do more than than just say you are. I come here mostly to read about either good builds, or people sharing knowledge that I do not have. (or even opinions, if they are presented as such) If you put the same effort into researching what you say as you do into correcting others or asserting that you are in someway more in touch with reality than they are, I would read and appreciate every post you make.

There is no shame in saying that a view is your opinion... Unless it is unusually important to someone to be seen as an authority. I am perfectly willing to acknowledge you as an authority, if you put forth the effort to BE one. It is why I came here, because I see TTL as just that kind of authority figure, and I wanted to hang out in an environment where others would presumably feel the same.
/

 

[MacLeod]

False.
For like the 100th time. It's not just miners. It was memory supply. Memory supply caused less supply and then the mining craze happened. That was a snowball affect and now we are in this situation. It's not entirely the miners fault.

Memory prices didn't make video prices DOUBLE in just a few months. It was miners buying retailers out of stock in some weird feeding frenzy that caused this. A GTX 1080 was $500 back in early December when I refreshed my rig. In 2 months they're $1000. This is worse but it's still the same thing that happened a few years ago when the first Bitcoin frenzy happened. No memory price hikes then either.

However outside of that. The mining thing has had a small impact for gamers. I mean I just helped 2 people build computers for gaming!
On top of that. Most gamers buy OEM. And OEMs aren't affected by this because they get first priority and buy directly from Nvidia/AMD at normal prices. So gamers who buy OEM are getting good deals.
On top of that, most people looking at the $1000 cards aren't new gamers. The 1080tis selling for that high are enthusiast. The 1060s/580s are expensive but not to bad all things considered and is where the majority of new gamers look at

GPU prices doubling and most SKU's being perpetually out of stock is a small impact?

And lastly if anybody says gaming is dying and PC gaming in particular, they are full of it. It's been going up year in and year out since forever. It makes more money than the movie industry. It's the best selling form of entertainment in the world. It past the $30billion mark I believe 2 years ago. It's not expected to slow down either

And if you can't look at the current market and acknowledge its pretty poor right now, you're kidding yourself. Gaming will never die but it's bubble can bust and a constant parade of junk AAA games rushed out by publishers like EA so they can push their loot boxes and a nonexistent GPU market and I think it's obvious this is not a good time for gaming.

 

[AngryGoldfish]

Got a source for 2019? There is literally almost no information available about this, and none that has been independently verified. Being usually right requires more than just bald assertions. There is no historical precedent to support the idea that as soon as 2019 the memory coming from China will be as expensive, because they specialize in producing product that is cheaper and usually of less quality/performance than other manufacturers.
No one will knowing pay the same price for inferior product. You made this point in reference to water cooling blocks and fittings yesterday, so why would memory be any different?
\
To be seen as "usually right" you have to do more than than just say you are. I come here mostly to read about either good builds, or people sharing knowledge that I do not have. (or even opinions, if they are presented as such) If you put the same effort into researching what you say as you do into correcting others or asserting that you are in someway more in touch with reality than they are, I would read and appreciate every post you make.

There is no shame in saying that a view is your opinion... Unless it is unusually important to someone to be seen as an authority. I am perfectly willing to acknowledge you as an authority, if you put forth the effort to BE one. It is why I came here, because I see TTL as just that kind of authority figure, and I wanted to hang out in an environment where others would presumably feel the same.
/

That's kind of how Alien is. I don't necessarily want to speak for him, but he's a lovely chap really. You just have to get used to his mannerisms, like with anyone really. He does have sources overseas that have proved correct on many occasions since I've joined, but he's also said things that didn't turn out to be true (not fully), which again is the same for all of us. If he comes across as all-knowing, that's just how his posts appear. I don't believe he actually thinks that of himself.

 

[tannji]

That's kind of how Alien is. I don't necessarily want to speak for him, but he's a lovely chap really. You just have to get used to his mannerisms, like with anyone really. He does have sources overseas that have proved correct on many occasions since I've joined, but he's also said things that didn't turn out to be true (not fully), which again is the same for all of us. If he comes across as all-knowing, that's just how his posts appear. I don't believe he actually thinks that of himself.

I will try to ignore it, but he actually frequently makes reference directly to how he is right, argues one point with you one day and then contradicts himself directly the next. Add to that the very frequent and usually unsolicited references to how he has a low opinion of and distaste for Americans, and it is a grating and unpleasant experience that does not jive with what you say. I have tendency to have unkind opinions about America, so it isn't a disagreement, just unappreciated.

 

[AngryGoldfish]

I will try to ignore it, but he actually frequently makes reference directly to how he is right, argues one point with you one day and then contradicts himself directly the next. Add to that the very frequent and usually unsolicited references to how he has a low opinion of and distaste for Americans, and it is a grating and unpleasant experience that does not jive with what you say. I have tendency to have unkind opinions about America, so it isn't a disagreement, just unappreciated.

We can't all get along. Not to say we should never try to adjust and improve ourselves, but no matter how hard we try, we can't please everyone. At first there were a couple of people on the forum here that I found challenging, but I soon got to know them better and now consider them to be friends, or at the very least people I respect and enjoy talking to.

Edit: And I'm sure I've ruffled feathers too myself.

 

[Kaapstad]

NVidia are full of animal waste.

Yes memory shortage and price has had an effect on the final price of a GPU card.

But if you remember NVidia cards are very overpriced to start with and the vendor is raking off a very big profit margin. NVidia could quite easily take a little bit of a hit on their margins and absorb the extra cost of memory chips without passing it onto the end user and still make a healthy profit.

If AMD were more competitive high end NVidia cards would be £200 cheaper regardless of any memory chip shortage.

 

[AngryGoldfish]

NVidia are full of animal waste.

Yes memory shortage and price has had an effect on the final price of a GPU card.

But if you remember NVidia cards are very overpriced to start with and the vendor is raking off a very big profit margin. NVidia could quite easily take a little bit of a hit on their margins and absorb the extra cost of memory chips without passing it onto the end user and still make a healthy profit.

If AMD were more competitive high end NVidia cards would be £200 cheaper regardless of any memory chip shortage.

Yeah, that's another aspect to consider: Vega isn't competitive enough.

 

[MacLeod]

If AMD were more competitive high end NVidia cards would be £200 cheaper regardless of any memory chip shortage.

AMD cards cost more than Nvidia do right now. Vega 64's are going for $1200 right now compared to the $1000 1080's and the 56's are $1000 compared to the $900 1070's.

There's no conspiracy going on right now. It's simple supply and demand with miners buying retailers out of stock as soon as GPU's hit their shelves. Anytime that happens with any product, prices are going to soar.

 

[Kaapstad]

AMD cards cost more than Nvidia do right now. Vega 64's are going for $1200 right now compared to the $1000 1080's and the 56's are $1000 compared to the $900 1070's.

There's no conspiracy going on right now. It's simple supply and demand with miners buying retailers out of stock as soon as GPU's hit their shelves. Anytime that happens with any product, prices are going to soar.

The problem is AMD have nothing that can challenge any of the top NVidia cards -

GTX 1080 Ti
Titan P
Titan Xp
Titan V

This means that NVidia can charge what they like as there is no other choice available.

The mining thing is a bonus for AMD as they can sell all the cards they make at very high prices and markups, if there was no mining boom these cards would be sat on the shelves as NVidia would clean up at the high end.

The only card NVidia sell that is a real bargain is actually the Titan V, this is because it is a very powerful compute card and can be used by professionals for things other than gaming.

 

[MacLeod]

The problem is AMD have nothing that can challenge any of the top NVidia cards -

GTX 1080 Ti
Titan P
Titan Xp
Titan V

This means that NVidia can charge what they like as there is no other choice available.

The mining thing is a bonus for AMD as they can sell all the cards they make at very high prices and markups, if there was no mining boom these cards would be sat on the shelves as NVidia would clean up at the high end.

The only card NVidia sell that is a real bargain is actually the Titan V, this is because it is a very powerful compute card and can be used by professionals for things other than gaming.

Oh I agree that AMD cards aren't as good as Nvidia's for gaming but that's not why 1080's and 1070Ti's are $1000.

 

[TheF34RChannel]

NVidia are full of animal waste.

Yes memory shortage and price has had an effect on the final price of a GPU card.

But if you remember NVidia cards are very overpriced to start with and the vendor is raking off a very big profit margin. NVidia could quite easily take a little bit of a hit on their margins and absorb the extra cost of memory chips without passing it onto the end user and still make a healthy profit.

If AMD were more competitive high end NVidia cards would be £200 cheaper regardless of any memory chip shortage.

I applaud your post! And have nothing to add actually. Nvidia can do a whole lot better for its customers and lose a tad of that arrogance.

 

[NeverBackDown]

NVidia are full of animal waste.

Yes memory shortage and price has had an effect on the final price of a GPU card.

But if you remember NVidia cards are very overpriced to start with and the vendor is raking off a very big profit margin. NVidia could quite easily take a little bit of a hit on their margins and absorb the extra cost of memory chips without passing it onto the end user and still make a healthy profit.

If AMD were more competitive high end NVidia cards would be £200 cheaper regardless of any memory chip shortage.

This is interesting to hear you say considering you have so many Nvidia cards and used to say the 1080ti was a good value.

Nvidia have no power to do anything. So while I agree they are greedy I don't agree it's their fault for prices. They have no control over the pricing. That's not how business works, it would be illegal for the to tell the likes of Newegg or whatever to sell at specific prices. Nvidia aren't making anymore money from selling at high prices. It's only the online sellers.

 

[Kaapstad]

This is interesting to hear you say considering you have so many Nvidia cards and used to say the 1080ti was a good value.

Nvidia have no power to do anything. So while I agree they are greedy I don't agree it's their fault for prices. They have no control over the pricing. That's not how business works, it would be illegal for the to tell the likes of Newegg or whatever to sell at specific prices. Nvidia aren't making anymore money from selling at high prices. It's only the online sellers.

Of course NVidia can control prices.

All they have to do is keep a good supply of FE cards back and sell them direct at whatever price they want instead of being out of stock all the time.

This could be done at the expense of any AIB partners who do charge ridiculous prices.

 

[tannji]

Apple, Samsung, and others control prices all the time. And it doesn't even require stock manipulation. When you are the alpha male like Nvidia, all you do is tell trading partners you prefer prices stay below a certain level. The partners can choose to profit now, or profit forever. However, once those partners have sold to 3rd party, all bets are off. And that is true no matter what the manufacturer wishes. The only way nvidia can affect this is through some draconian dictate to manufacturers requiring them to do what EVGA is attempting. (keeping stock available through their own website, and attempting to limit cards per customer and transaction)
Unfortunately, Nvidia isn't keen on the overhead and service debt that would require.

 

[Kaapstad]

Apple, Samsung, and others control prices all the time. And it doesn't even require stock manipulation. When you are the alpha male like Nvidia, all you do is tell trading partners you prefer prices stay below a certain level. The partners can choose to profit now, or profit forever. However, once those partners have sold to 3rd party, all bets are off. And that is true no matter what the manufacturer wishes. The only way nvidia can affect this is through some draconian dictate to manufacturers requiring them to do what EVGA is attempting. (keeping stock available through their own website, and attempting to limit cards per customer and transaction)
Unfortunately, Nvidia isn't keen on the overhead and service debt that would require.

They have been doing it for several years with the Titan brand so it would not be hard to extend it further to the other high end cards. For example they could have sold all the FE 1080 Ti cards direct and only allowed a very small supply of GP102 chips to go to AIB partners for non reference cards. It is also difficult to make a purchase of more than 2 GPUs direct from NVidia so that would make life hard for the miners.

 

[NeverBackDown]

Of course NVidia can control prices.

All they have to do is keep a good supply of FE cards back and sell them direct at whatever price they want instead of being out of stock all the time.

This could be done at the expense of any AIB partners who do charge ridiculous prices.

Yes but they aren't doing that. Considering they made more money last year than before and all the GPU vendor's, including AMDs, are reporting massive stock issues because of memory, your argument doesn't really stand to reason.

While I am defending them in this instance do note I still despise them as a company. But I also am reasonable and not blinded by fanboyism so I still do agree with you they are greedy and yes are capable as you explained of controlling stock directly, I just don't believe that's the case.