It will all come down to pricing and how single-core performance goes.
Intel can have all the cores it likes, but if AMD has much higher single-threaded performance, it may not matter. With the higher-end Nova Lake models, expect X299-style pricing. Those CPUs will be expensive. It's a semi-return to the old HEDT days. It won't be Threadripper expensive, but it won't be cheap.
It will likely be the single compute chiplet (8P + 16E + 4 LPE) to battle against most of AMD's Zen 6 Ryzen lineup. Then higher-end SKUs at higher prices. That said, it depends on how fast Zen 6 is, and what Intel's profitability is like using its own 18A node. Moving silicon from TSMC back to Intel is a big deal.
Fixing Arrow Lake's issues alone would give Intel a big boost. With APX, we can also expect Intel to do a lot more with its application optimisation tech. Nova Lake will be a big move forward for Intel. But AMD will know this and will have prepared accordingly. There's a reason why AMD is using TSMC 2nm and not 3nm. They are being aggressive as they do not want to lose ground.